Watch how quotes step, cancel, and refill when momentum builds. Rapid pullbacks in displayed depth often signal hidden interest absorbing flows. By mapping queue behavior and order-to-trade ratios during bursts, you learn whether a spike is dealer hedging, real money conviction, or just fleeting arbitrage.
Liquidity is a living rhythm. During data releases, top-of-book sizes shrink, spreads breathe wider, and odd-lot prints reveal urgency. Noticing who steps in after the first sweep helps you judge durability, potential continuation, and whether your execution should prioritize speed, stealth, or simple restraint.
From payrolls to CPI, the earliest reaction is often reflexive and inventory-driven. Map revisions, core measures, and deviations versus consensus, not headlines alone. Watch rates futures first; their repricing often scripts FX follow-through, guiding whether you fade the knee-jerk or lean into continuation.
Central bankers move markets with commas and caveats. A single adjective in forward guidance can compress months of expectations into moments. Track dots, terminal rate shifts, and balance sheet hints, then translate them into currency relative value rather than emotional reactions to eloquent press conference performances.
When fear or euphoria ripples through assets, FX expresses the mood instantly. Yen, franc, and dollar often toggle their safety roles depending on yield dynamics. Monitor credit spreads and vol indices to anticipate rotations, letting cross-asset context shape trade direction, size, and protective exit logic.